Inside Carney’s Plan to Unite Europe and the Indo-Pacific

This morning, news broke that Prime Minister Mark Carney is spearheading discussions around the European Union potentially integrating with the CPTPP. At first glance, that might sound like distant geopolitical maneuvering, the kind of thing that feels removed from everyday life. But it isn’t. If it were to happen, it could mark one of the biggest reintegrations of the global economy in decades, and it’s something Canadians should be paying close attention to.

In this piece, we’re going to break down what the CPTPP is, where it came from, and what Carney appears to be trying to do for the future of the rules-based global order, particularly when it comes to trade.

A few weeks ago at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Carney gave a speech about the importance of “middle power” countries coming together to counterbalance the influence of major superpowers. He didn’t explicitly name the United States, but the implication was clear. The global trade system is increasingly shaped by the decisions of Washington and Beijing. Carney’s message was that countries like Canada, Japan, Australia, and the European Union need to work more closely together to maintain stability and predictability.

Now, according to reporting, it appears he’s not just talking the talk. Behind closed doors, discussions are underway about bringing the European Union into closer alignment with the CPTPP, and potentially much more than that.

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What Is the CPTPP?

The CPTPP stands for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. It’s one of the largest free-trade agreements in the world, linking economies across the Pacific Rim into a single system that reduces tariffs, sets trade rules, and strengthens economic ties.

Today, the CPTPP includes 12 members:

• Canada

• Japan

• Australia

• New Zealand

• Mexico

• Chile

• Peru

• Vietnam

• Malaysia

• Singapore

• Brunei

• United Kingdom (joined in 2023)

Together, they represent a massive share of global trade and economic output, stretching from the Americas to Asia and Europe.

For Canada, it’s one of the key pillars of trade diversification, giving Canadian exporters access to fast-growing markets across the Indo-Pacific.

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How It Started and How the U.S. Walked Away

The CPTPP actually began as a much larger project.

Originally, it was known simply as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and the United States was at the center of it. The deal was designed to create a massive free-trade zone linking North America, Asia, and Oceania, setting common rules on trade, investment, digital commerce, and intellectual property.

But in 2017, the United States withdrew from the agreement shortly after Donald Trump took office. The remaining countries made a decision that would end up reshaping global trade: instead of abandoning the project, they moved forward without the U.S.

The agreement was reworked, renamed the CPTPP, and came into force in 2018.

In a sense, it became the largest trade deal ever created without American leadership, a sign that the world was beginning to reorganize economically in new ways.

Now, years later, Carney appears to be pushing the next phase of that evolution.

If the European Union were to integrate with the CPTPP framework, whether through full membership, alignment, or a formal partnership, it would connect two enormous economic blocs:

• The European Union: roughly 450 million people

• CPTPP countries: hundreds of millions more across Asia, the Americas, and the Pacific

Combined, this could create one of the most powerful trade networks on Earth, potentially representing a massive portion of global GDP. About 40% of Global GDP and 1.5 billion people. For reference, the US economy is about 25% of global GDP and China is about 18-20%.

This wouldn’t just be about tariffs. It would be about setting global standards, on digital trade, supply chains, energy, environmental rules, and industrial policy.

And that’s where the geopolitics come in.

For years, global trade has been shaped by two giants: the United States and China.

China has built its own trade networks and economic partnerships across Asia and beyond. The U.S., meanwhile, still dominates global finance and maintains deep trade ties across the Western world.

But both powers have increasingly used trade as a political tool, through tariffs, restrictions, and economic pressure.

What Carney appears to be envisioning is something different: a coalition of middle-power economies creating a stable, rules-based system that isn’t dominated by any single superpower.

If the EU and CPTPP were to align, it could:

• Reduce reliance on the U.S. market

• Provide an alternative to China-centered supply chains

• Create a massive democratic trade zone

• Give countries more leverage in negotiations with larger powers

It would effectively give medium-sized economies the ability to shape global rules together.

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A New Global Trade Order?

This is why these talks matter.

If Europe and the CPTPP move closer together, it could reshape how the world trades, linking Europe, Asia, and the Pacific into a single, interconnected economic space.

Canada would sit right in the middle of that system.

Already, Canada has trade agreements with:

• The United States and Mexico

• The European Union

• CPTPP countries

Few countries in the world have that level of access.

If the EU and CPTPP begin to integrate more deeply, it could mark the beginning of a new phase in global economic organization, one where trade is shaped less by superpowers alone, and more by coalitions of aligned nations working together.

It wouldn’t happen overnight. Negotiations would be complex and politically difficult. Although it seems the Trump administration has pushed countries to move at speeds never seen before. But the mere fact that the conversation is happening signals something important:

The global economy is shifting.

And Canada, under Carney’s leadership, appears to be trying to position itself at the center of what comes next.

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