UH OH!?

It’s Tuesday afternoon and there are a few things I would like to update you all on. There has been a lot happening across Canada and beyond over the past 24 hours, so let’s dive in.

New Polling Spells Trouble for Pierre Poilievre

New polling released this week suggests that things may be getting increasingly difficult for Pierre Poilievre.

Polling from Liaison shows Poilievre with negative favourability ratings in every region of the country. Meanwhile Mark Carney currently holds strong favourability numbers across the country.

Another poll released yesterday by Nanos Research has the Liberal Party of Canada at 46 percent nationally compared with 33 percent for the Conservative Party of Canada.

A Liaison poll from March 7 shows a similar trend with the Liberals at 44 percent and the Conservatives at 30 percent.

When analysts model these numbers out into projected seats, the results are striking. Current projections suggest the Liberals could win around 220 seats, while the Conservatives could be reduced to roughly 70 seats.

Perhaps most concerning for Conservatives is that they appear to be losing ground in regions where they traditionally dominate. Some projections suggest the Liberals could win as many as 14 seats in Alberta.

Of course polls do not vote, but there is no doubt that Conservative strategists will be watching these numbers very closely. If the trend continues, it could raise serious questions about Poilievre’s leadership going forward.

First Nations Chiefs Confront the Alberta Government

Yesterday at the Alberta Legislature, First Nations chiefs from Treaties 6, 7 and 8 gathered in the gallery to oppose the actions of Danielle Smith and her government.

The chiefs say they are deeply concerned about the province clearing the way for a possible referendum on Alberta separation. They have warned that if their concerns are ignored they are prepared to block major infrastructure projects for decades.

Despite the chiefs sitting in the gallery during the legislative session, the UCP government continued to insist that its relationship with First Nations remains strong. Near the end of the sitting, shouting could be heard from the gallery as chiefs voiced their opposition to the government.

Several striking statistics were raised during question period.

The average life expectancy for Albertans is about 83 years, while the life expectancy for many First Nations people in the province is closer to 63 years.

First Nations people also account for about 20 percent of opioid deaths in Alberta, despite representing only 3.4 percent of the population.

These numbers highlight the deep disparities that continue to exist and explain why many First Nations leaders say the province must act with far greater urgency.

TikTok Wins Major Battle to Stay in Canada

TikTok has secured a major win after a long-running dispute with the federal government.

Following a national security review ordered under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, TikTok had initially been ordered to shut down its Canadian offices. The company challenged the decision in court, which resulted in the government conducting an additional security review.

Yesterday, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly announced that TikTok will be allowed to remain operational in Canada.

However, the company will be required to implement several new safeguards. These include enhanced protections for Canadian user data, new security gateways to control access to that data, stronger protections for minors, and oversight from an independent third party monitor who will audit TikTok’s data access controls.

TikTok welcomed the decision and said it looks forward to continuing to invest in Canadian creators, artists and small businesses.

Trump Calls Carney “Future Governor”

South of the border, tensions between Canada and the United States continue to simmer.

U.S. president Donald Trump referred to Mark Carney as the “future governor” in a post on his social media platform Truth Social earlier today.

Canadian Navy Operations in the Caribbean Raise Questions

Canada’s military presence in the Caribbean is also drawing attention.

The U.S. military has been conducting a militarized anti drug trafficking campaign known as Southern Spear. Since last year the operation has resulted in at least 151 people being killed in airstrikes against boats suspected of carrying drugs to the United States.

Human rights advocates have criticized the strikes as unlawful killings of people who were never convicted of any crime.

Canada currently has naval vessels operating in the Caribbean as part of missions aimed at combating drug smuggling.

The Department of National Defence says Canadian forces only participate in lawful operations targeting illicit drug trafficking and that safeguards are in place to prevent Canadian intelligence from being used in lethal U.S. strikes.

Shots Fired Near U.S. Consulate in Toronto

Police in Toronto are investigating after shots were fired near the U.S. consulate in the city.

Authorities say no injuries were reported and the investigation is ongoing. Chief Superintendent Chris Leather of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police later described the shooting as a national security incident.

So far police have not identified a suspect or a clear motive.

The incident comes during a period of heightened political tensions following the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran.

Canada Will Not Join War in Iran

Canada’s defence minister has attempted to clarify the country’s position on the conflict with Iran.

David McGuinty said Monday that Canada will not be participating in the war in Iran.

The statement follows comments from Prime Minister Mark Carney last week in which he did not completely rule out the possibility of Canadian involvement.

McGuinty said Canada has not yet decided whether it will join NATO allies in providing assistance to Persian Gulf countries that have come under attack by Iran.

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My goal is to keep Canadians up to date on what’s happening across the country in a way that is clear and easy to understand.

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— Cole